The political landscape for moderate Republican governors is shifting dramatically, as evidenced by the recent departures of prominent figures like Larry Hogan, who was term-limited out in Maryland in 2015, and Charlie Baker, who opted for a lucrative $3 million-per-year salary instead of facing a challenging primary against a candidate endorsed by Donald Trump in Massachusetts. These decisions highlight the increasing difficulty faced by moderates in a party that is increasingly leaning towards the hard right.

In a significant development, Chris Sununu has announced his decision to step away from the gubernatorial race in New Hampshire, marking a pivotal moment for the Republican Party.

Historically, fiscally conservative yet socially moderate Republican governors have successfully navigated blue and purple states, leveraging bipartisan support to govern effectively. This trend has been particularly evident in New England, where three of the six governors hail from the Republican Party. For nearly thirty years, governors like Baker and Bill Weld managed the state of Massachusetts with minimal opposition, showcasing the potential for moderate leadership in traditionally liberal territories.

However, the political climate has changed drastically in recent years.

The rise of Donald Trump has intensified the Republican Party’s shift towards the far right, complicating the primary dynamics for moderate candidates. Democrats have seized the opportunity presented by the departures of both Baker and Hogan, leveraging public dissatisfaction with Trump and the Supreme Court to reclaim critical state offices in Massachusetts and Maryland during the last election cycle. In response to Sununu’s recent announcement, race analysts have classified the New Hampshire gubernatorial contest as a toss-up, with Democrats eyeing this state as a prime target for a gubernatorial takeover in the upcoming 2024 elections.

With Sununu’s exit, the number of Republican governors in states that swung Democratic in 2020, such as Nevada’s Joe Lombardo and Vermont’s Phil Scott, is diminishing, raising concerns about the party’s future in these regions.

“This is uncharted territory for the Republican Party,” remarked Mike Dennehy, a seasoned Republican strategist based in New Hampshire.

Moderate Republican governors have traditionally found success in blue states, particularly in the Northeast, by fostering bipartisan relationships and providing a counterbalance to Democratic-led legislatures. These leaders have consistently ranked among the most popular state executives nationwide and have often secured reelection with significant margins. Their ability to appeal to a broader electorate has been a hallmark of their governance.

Yet, the emergence of Trump has complicated this strategy, creating an environment where working across party lines has become increasingly difficult — and in some cases, politically detrimental — for Republican governors in more liberal states.

Trump’s influence has not only fractured the GOP base in these traditionally blue states but has also sparked a movement towards more extreme candidates who dominate primary elections.

This reality was particularly evident in Massachusetts, where Baker — a highly popular two-term governor and vocal critic of Trump — faced a legitimate threat of losing the GOP primary in 2022 to a more conservative candidate backed by Trump. Despite widespread acknowledgment that Baker could have easily secured a third term, he and his lieutenant governor, Karyn Polito, ultimately chose to step back from the race.

As a result, more conservative Geoff Diehl won the Republican nomination, but he subsequently lost the general election to Democrat Maura Healey by a staggering margin of nearly 30 points.

“If the Republican Party can identify candidates who embody the moderate ideals of Sununu, Baker, and Scott, they can remain competitive,” stated Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist with prior experience working for Sununu’s family during their political tenures. “However, nominating individuals closely aligned with Trump’s campaign will likely lead to losses.”

Sununu benefitted from a unique political context in New Hampshire, where both legislative chambers are nearly evenly split between parties, as well as a different relationship with the GOP base. He famously criticized Trump at a high-profile Washington D.C. dinner last spring, yet still managed to breeze through his gubernatorial primary later that year. His successful reelection for a fourth two-year term in November was by a comfortable margin of 15 points.

Nonetheless, Sununu announced his decision to forgo a record fifth term on Wednesday, stating that “public service is not a career” and that the time had come for him to step aside.

“Obviously I believe I could get reelected,” Sununu shared in a recent interview. “But it’s beneficial for the system to have turnover, to introduce fresh faces, and to bring new ideas to the forefront.”

Sununu’s departure threatens to amplify the power vacuum created by the exits of Baker and Hogan in a region that has historically been a stronghold for moderate Republicans and a bastion of bipartisan governance. This is especially true if Phil Scott of Vermont, who won reelection in 2022 by his largest margin yet, also opts out of the race for a fifth term.

“I have Republicans in my Legislature. I’m not compelled to act against my will. I simply understand that collaborating across the aisle is smart business and an effective way to accomplish goals,” Sununu expressed. “It’s unfortunate that we don’t have more individuals willing to collaborate in this manner. Yet, there’s hope that more will emerge in the future as strong examples of bipartisanship.”

Democrats, who have struggled to unseat Sununu in the past, are now capitalizing on his decision to step down. The party has long aspired for an open gubernatorial seat in New Hampshire and now views the state as one of their most promising — if not the best — opportunities for a pickup in the 2024 cycle.

However, the Democratic primary race between Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington and outgoing Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is currently creating divisions within the Democratic establishment in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, Republicans are not conceding the state easily. Former state Senate President Chuck Morse, who previously ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 2022, immediately jumped into the governor’s race following Sununu’s announcement. Additionally, former Senator Kelly Ayotte hinted at “some significant news in the coming days,” while State Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut is also contemplating a run.

Despite the presence of several highly capable candidates, former New Hampshire GOP Chair Fergus Cullen cautioned fellow Republicans against underestimating the opposition — especially if Trump becomes the party’s presidential nominee once again.

“If Trump is the nominee and he loses New Hampshire by another eight points, it will be challenging for Republicans to maintain control of the governor’s office,” Cullen warned. “I had hoped Sununu would run to ensure our stability through the election.”