The AP’s school soccer rankings are supposed to find out the most effective groups within the nation. No. 1 is meant to be a greater group than No. 2 if each groups performed on a impartial area. The identical goes with No. 2 and three, 3 and 4…and so forth and so forth. Subsequently, it got here as an enormous shock when bettors awakened final Sunday and noticed a sure betting line for Week 5.
On the schedule was No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss. On a floor stage, you’d suppose Kentucky, regardless of being the street group, could be the favourite, or on the very least, very small underdogs. WRONG! They had been 6.5-point underdogs at the start of the week. The rankings are at all times going to be the very first thing any informal bettor sees. They see a seven subsequent to Kentucky and a 14 subsequent to Ole Miss and suppose, “Alright! That’s a mistake! Time to make the sportsbooks sorry. I’ll take the underdog Kentucky to cowl.” Nevertheless, this can be a basic Admiral Ackbar scenario. It’s an unlimited entice!
This created a really, very lopsided distribution of bets poured in Kentucky’s favor. Eighty % of bettors had been betting on Kentucky to cowl. That mentioned, solely 53 % of the cash was in Kentucky’s favor. That’s telling. Individuals are extra keen to place larger greenback quantities on a worse-ranked group that would want to win by a landing or extra. Why? What do these bettors and the sportsbooks know that may’t be defined by the group’s rating?
Whereas Kentucky is the higher group total, Ole Miss seems to be a nightmare matchup. Kentucky’s greatest weak spot is its offensive line. Via 4 weeks, Kentucky is final within the SEC in yards per carry at 2.41. The Wildcats have additionally surrendered essentially the most sacks within the SEC with quarterback Will Levis having hit the turf 16 instances already this yr. Whereas the O-line is often a energy at Kentucky, this yr Professional Soccer Focus ranks them 66th within the nation in cross blocking and 77th in run blocking. That’s not good, however it will get worse once you notice the place Ole Miss’s greatest energy lies.
The Rebels’ entrance seven is among the hardest within the nation. They rank second within the SEC in sacks and third in tackles for loss. In keeping with PFF, Ole Miss ranks forty fourth within the nation in run blocking with a 77.9 grade and 14th in cross rush. That’s a fairly large discrepancy, and whereas the Rebels have sustained Sure, the Wildcats will see the return of preseason All-American Chris Rodriguez Jr., however an awesome operating again usually doesn’t make up for poor offensive line play.
On the flip aspect of the ball, Ole Miss has been some of the efficient speeding groups in FBS, averaging 280.8 yards per recreation on the bottom. Kentucky’s secondary has been nice this yr, rating fifteenth in passing yards allowed per recreation and eighth in passer score allowed. Nevertheless, that entrance seven, regardless of constantly holding opponents to below their season common, has benefited closely from the sport script. In each recreation this yr, the Wildcats have led by not less than a landing initially of the fourth quarter. That’s going to advertise a pass-heavy offense from each opponent and that’s the place Kentucky’s energy lies. Kentucky likes to run defenses with gentle field stress, however in opposition to a group like Ole Miss that loves nothing greater than to run the ball down their opponent’s throats, that would come again to chew them.
Is the road too excessive?? Perhaps, however Vegas tends to be superb at setting traces. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t make any cash, and everyone knows they’re solely in it for the cash. Whereas I imagine Kentucky to be the higher group total, Ole Miss’ strengths offensively and defensively match up so completely in opposition to Kentucky that I can’t assist however perceive why sportsbooks would have the No. 7 group within the nation as such hefty underdogs. Mainly, as a lot of a layup as this recreation could seem at a look, at all times do your analysis earlier than throwing cash down.
