It is a two-horse race, and whereas Atlanta’s Michael Harris is the favourite to win the award at present (-320 odds), I’m giving the sting to Spencer Strider. Strider’s impeccable mustache is the principle purpose I’m leaning in his favor, however except for the beautiful facial hair, Strider led all Nationwide League rookie pitchers (min. 70 innings pitched) in ERA by practically a full level. (Strider: 2.67; CIN’s Nick Lodolo: 3.66). His anticipated ERA was even decrease (2.39). Strider’s 4.9 fWAR was greater than three factors larger than Lodolo’s (1.8). Strider is to this point and away the most effective rookie pitcher within the Nationwide League it’s not even shut.
There are two elements going in opposition to Strider although. For one, he suffered an indirect damage in September which pressured him to overlook time. Whereas he was out, the Braves overtook the Mets within the NL East and gained the division. That’s not good for Strider’s case. Nonetheless, earlier than taking place, Strider had a 5-1 report and a 1.71 ERA over his earlier seven begins. He was completely dominating opposing lineups and possibly would’ve had a sub-2.50 ERA if he hadn’t gotten damage. Second, Strider solely turned a beginning pitcher on the finish of Might. Strider’s first 11 appearances in 2022 have been as a reliever. He was nice in that position, however due to that restricted time as a starter, Striders’ cumulative statistics like strikeouts and innings pitched aren’t the place voters would love them to be. Strider’s historical past as a reliever additionally made it tough for him to go deep into video games. All through 20 video games began, Strider solely had two video games the place he went deeper than six innings. That lack of endurance may play a consider voters’ selections.
Nonetheless, Harris solely performed in 114 video games this season. Whereas he racked up a good line, and practically joined the 20-20 membership in his rookie season, ending one residence run quick, his plate self-discipline was slightly missing. If Harris merely took extra pitches, he may’ve simply had an OPS within the .870s. That’s one thing he’ll must work on sooner or later. I additionally really feel as if Harris’s unimaginable energy numbers are unsustainable. 49 of Harris’s 123 hits this season went for further bases, giving Harris a .217 ISO, 18th-best within the Nationwide League. His BABIP was additionally .361, the second-highest within the Nationwide League. That suggests plenty of luck went Harris’s method in 2022. Thus, I’m giving the sting to Strider. Oh, and Harris’s OPS-plus was 135. Strider’s ERA-plus was 153.